Toncoin plunges 55% from peak, but VC firms still hold over $400M

• Key support levels are between $3.50 and $4.00, with a potential rebound if it holds.
• Toncoin saw a 20% surge on 17 March after Pavel Durov returned to Dubai.
• OKX Ventures invested $5 million in TON-native app development in December 2024.

Toncoin ($TON), the native cryptocurrency of The Open Network, has experienced sharp volatility over the past year, with its value plummeting 55% from its June 2024 peak of $8.24.

At the time of writing, Toncoin trades at $3.50.

Source: CoinMarketCap

Despite this decline, investor interest remains strong, particularly among major venture capital (VC) firms, which collectively hold over $400 million in $TON.

This financial backing signals long-term faith in the network, even as legal issues and controversial airdrops have clouded its short-term outlook.

TON trading volume rises

While $TON has fallen significantly from its highs, recent technical indicators suggest that traders are watching closely for a potential breakout.

Toncoin is currently testing critical support levels between $3.50 and $4.00.

This zone is being eyed as a make-or-break point for the token.

Trading volume has increased by 18%, pointing to renewed activity, although momentum remains mixed.

An inverse Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern is forming on the charts, often associated with bullish reversals.

If $TON manages to stay above the $4.00–$4.50 range—corresponding with the neckline of the H&S structure—it could pave the way for a recovery toward $5.00–$5.50.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently sits at 58.37, just below overbought territory.

However, a drop below $3.00 would reinforce the downtrend and nullify bullish signals.

Since its launch, Toncoin has risen over 800%, but its recent price action shows growing sensitivity to both market dynamics and external developments.

Legal and airdrop issues

Toncoin’s recent price movements cannot be explained by technicals alone. External events have had a marked impact on investor sentiment.

In the second half of 2024, legal troubles involving Pavel Durov, the creator of Telegram and a key figure behind the TON project, pressured the market.

Although Durov was permitted to return to Dubai on 17 March 2025—prompting a 20% surge in Toncoin’s price—the episode added to a string of challenges.

Criticism also mounted over the Hamster Kombat and NotPixel airdrops, both of which used the TON blockchain infrastructure.

These events raised concerns among the community about the transparency and fairness of reward distribution.

Despite the controversy, The Open Network remained one of the top-performing Layer-1 blockchains last year, continuing to attract user activity and developer interest.

VCs hold $400 million

Investor confidence in the long-term viability of Toncoin has been reinforced by growing institutional backing.

In December 2024, OKX Ventures announced a $5 million investment into TON Ventures, a dedicated fund supporting Telegram-native applications on the blockchain.

The fund is focused on attracting experienced developers and building tools that encourage wider adoption of the TON network.

Venture firms such as Sequoia, Ribbit, Benchmark, and SkyBridge are among those with notable holdings in $TON.

The cumulative VC investment in Toncoin now exceeds $400 million.

This level of institutional exposure indicates that despite short-term headwinds, many expect the network to grow further, especially as decentralised applications built on TON become more mainstream.

Launched in 2021

Toncoin’s journey began in 2018 when it was conceptualised by the creators of Telegram.

After facing regulatory hurdles, the blockchain’s mainnet finally went live in May 2021.

Since then, it has evolved into a decentralised Layer-1 network, hosting a range of applications including games, decentralised exchanges, and mini-apps integrated with Telegram’s interface.

The close integration with Telegram has helped TON differentiate itself in a crowded blockchain market.

However, this association has also made the network susceptible to events involving the messaging platform’s leadership, as seen with the impact of Durov’s legal case.

Despite the volatility, the TON ecosystem continues to grow, with rising user numbers and increased developer activity.

The challenge now lies in maintaining technical momentum while navigating the broader regulatory landscape.

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