Mature asset: Diminishing effects following each halving

Hard to unsee it but fair to say that the price appreciation following each halving is reduced significantly after 4 halving cycles. 1st (green), 2nd (red), and 3rd (yellow) lines all support this, as such past post halving performance not indicative of this cycle's performance. The unmeasurable offset to this argument would be the institutional adoption underway, which is difficult to model unless one draws parallels (guesstimates) to other asset classes in their infancy stages. The illustration above uses an AVERAGE BTC trajectory whereas I would personally use a WEIGHTED average with heavier weights on the latter cycles: 3rd (50% wt), 2nd cycle (35% wt), 1st (15% wt) Not picking away at the bull thesis by any means but rather interested in hearing what thoughts others have to further my learning. Disclosure: permalong BTC submitted by /u/FinacierSmurf [link] [comments]

Mar 1, 2025 - 20:48

Mature asset: Diminishing effects following each halving

Hard to unsee it but fair to say that the price appreciation following each halving is reduced significantly after 4 halving cycles. 1st (green), 2nd (red), and 3rd (yellow) lines all support this, as such past post halving performance not indicative of this cycle's performance. The unmeasurable offset to this argument would be the institutional adoption underway, which is difficult to model unless one draws parallels (guesstimates) to other asset classes in their infancy stages.

The illustration above uses an AVERAGE BTC trajectory whereas I would personally use a WEIGHTED average with heavier weights on the latter cycles: 3rd (50% wt), 2nd cycle (35% wt), 1st (15% wt)

Not picking away at the bull thesis by any means but rather interested in hearing what thoughts others have to further my learning.

Disclosure: permalong BTC

submitted by /u/FinacierSmurf
[link] [comments]